Understand what a Super El Niño claims shock means for India's crop insurance system
India's PMFBY is already operationally stretched in normal years — ₹150–250 crore in annual CCE costs, 30–40% of CCEs facing quality or fraud concerns, and settlement timelines already running 6–9 months. With Super El Niño conditions tracking for 2026 and every affected state filing claims simultaneously, the CCE system wasn't built for what's coming.
You'll gain insights into:
- Why 2026 is a systemic event — what a 50–70% drought probability means for PMFBY operations across the 8–10 states that simultaneously file claims, overwhelming CCE capacity and settlement infrastructure.
- The historical settlement failure from 2023–24, why 2026 conditions are materially worse, and what an agri-claims backlog stretching to 12 months in Maharashtra and Karnataka threatens across the ₹1.83 lakh crore PMFBY scheme.
- How crop insurers are currently operating without real-time crop visibility, and what that information lag costs by the time fraud and delayed settlement surface in operational and political data.
What you'll find inside the report
The portfolio at risk
India's PMFBY has paid ₹1.83 lakh crore in claims across 72.61 crore cumulative applications. In a Super El Niño year, monsoon rainfall falls to 80–88% of LPA and multiple states file claims simultaneously. This section maps exactly where the exposure concentrates — by state, by crop, and by Insurance Unit — before the monsoon stress arrives.
Why claims arrive as a surprise
Crop losses start at sowing failure. They show up in settlement queues 6–9 months later. By that point, farmer debt has compounded, distress has deepened, and political pressure for blanket waivers has already built. The report explains the timeline precisely, with 2015–16 and 2023–24 as reference points.
The CCE visibility gap
₹150–250 crore in annual CCE costs nationally. No scalable mechanism to assess losses across multiple states simultaneously when drought hits them all at once. This section breaks down the data gap — what insurers currently rely on, why it lags, and what it costs PMFBY in 2023–24.
Farm loan waivers and the political dimension
In systemic drought years, 15–20% of claims show anomalies — inflated area declarations, fabricated loss, or claims for crops not actually sown. Estimated fraud leakage runs to ₹2,000–3,000 crore per year during El Niño events. Insurers that can demonstrate proactive, data-backed verification will be better positioned in those conversations.
How satellite intelligence changes the decision timeline
From parametric triggers that compress settlement from months to weeks, to satellite-based yield estimation at Insurance Unit level that can augment or replace manual CCEs entirely — an overview of how earth observation data gives crop insurers 2–3 months of early warning, enough time to move from reactive provisioning to structured claims management before the volume wave hits.
Our Industries
We collaborate with diverse sectors to turn complex data into clear, actionable intelligence. Explore how our solutions are tailored to empower each industry—from agriculture to manufacturing and beyond.
Banking
Enabling credit solutions for the underserved smallholder farmers
The BFSI sector plays a crucial role in providing financial services, and in the context of smallholder farmers, this often means addressing the challenge of limited access to formal credit. By developing and implementing innovative credit solutions, the BFSI industry can empower these farmers, helping them secure the necessary capital for their agricultural endeavors and fostering economic stability in rural communities.
Agri-Business
Empowering Agri-Businesses with EO Data based insights across crop lifecycle
In the agriculture sector, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data is transforming how agri-businesses operate. By leveraging insights derived from satellite imagery and other remote sensing technologies, businesses can gain a comprehensive understanding of crop health, growth stages, and environmental factors across the entire crop lifecycle, leading to optimized planning, resource management, and improved yields.
Aviation
A Multi-Module Aeronautical Information Platform
The aviation industry relies heavily on accurate and timely information for safe and efficient operations. A multi-module aeronautical information platform serves as a critical backbone, integrating diverse data streams related to airspace, weather, navigation, and other essential details to support flight planning, air traffic control, and overall operational safety and management.
Utilities and Critical Infrastructure
Transforming infrastructure and utilities for optimized planning, monitoring, and risk mitigation
The infrastructure and utilities sectors are fundamental to societal functioning, and their efficient management is paramount. By embracing advanced technologies, these sectors can achieve optimized planning, continuous monitoring of assets and networks, and robust risk mitigation strategies, leading to more resilient, sustainable, and effective delivery of essential services.
Forestry
Building first-of-its kind Digital Forest Stack for governments, enabling forest communities and allied industries
In forestry, the development of a digital forest stack represents a significant leap forward for governments and related stakeholders. This innovative platform can centralize data on forest resources, health, and management, enabling sustainable practices, supporting the livelihoods of forest communities, and providing valuable information for allied industries dependent on forest products.
Insurance and Reinsurance
De-Risking Agricultural Insurance with Satellite-Driven Intelligence
SatSure empowers insurers and reinsurers with real-time crop intelligence, yield forecasts, and post-disaster assessment tools—enabling smarter underwriting, efficient claims validation, and scalable risk management across geographies
