Understand what a Super El Niño supply shock means for India's agri-commodity portfolio
The 2023-24 El Niño caused sugar production to fall 11.4%, triggered a rice export ban with less than 72 hours' notice, and left procurement teams holding ₹1,200–2,000 crore in missed windows and inflated spot prices. With Super El Niño conditions tracking for 2026, the supply shock doesn't wait for the season to end. It starts at sowing.
You'll gain insights into:
- Why 2026 is a portfolio-level event — what a compressed, dislocated harvest season means for procurement across the crops and geographies that carry the bulk of India's commodity supply.
- The historical supply shock pattern from 2023–24, why 2026 conditions are materially worse, and what soybean procurement running 25–30% below target means for companies still operating on last year's source geographies.
- How agri-commodity companies are currently operating without real-time supply visibility, and what that information lag costs by the time mandi prices reflect what already happened in the field.
What you'll find inside the report
The portfolio at risk
Pulses imports surged 80% to $3.17 billion in 2023–24. Wasted logistics and warehousing costs ran ₹400–700 crore across the industry. This section maps exactly where supply exposure concentrates — by crop, by district, and by procurement geography — before the monsoon stress arrives.
Why supply shocks arrive as a surprise
Yield estimates arrive 4–6 weeks after harvest data comes through government and mandi channels. By that point, prices have already moved, procurement windows have closed, and competitors with earlier intelligence have taken the better positions. The report explains the timeline precisely, with 2023–24 as the reference point.
The procurement geography gap
In 2023–24, soybean procurement in Madhya Pradesh ran 25–30% below target because surplus and deficit pockets weren't identified early enough. This section breaks down the data gap — what procurement teams currently rely on, why it lags, and what it cost the sector.
Commodity quality and the grade differential dimension
Mills absorbed ₹800–1,200 crore in grade-based price differentials in 2023–24 as grain quality deteriorated silently under moisture stress. Companies that can demonstrate proactive, data-backed sourcing decisions will protect both margins and procurement targets.
How satellite intelligence changes the decision timeline
From pre-harvest yield estimation at district level to supply geography mapping with 2–4 weeks of forward visibility — an overview of how earth observation data gives agri-commodity companies the intelligence to reach the right mandis before prices spike.
Our Industries
We collaborate with diverse sectors to turn complex data into clear, actionable intelligence. Explore how our solutions are tailored to empower each industry—from agriculture to manufacturing and beyond.
Banking
Enabling credit solutions for the underserved smallholder farmers
The BFSI sector plays a crucial role in providing financial services, and in the context of smallholder farmers, this often means addressing the challenge of limited access to formal credit. By developing and implementing innovative credit solutions, the BFSI industry can empower these farmers, helping them secure the necessary capital for their agricultural endeavors and fostering economic stability in rural communities.
Agri-Business
Empowering Agri-Businesses with EO Data based insights across crop lifecycle
In the agriculture sector, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data is transforming how agri-businesses operate. By leveraging insights derived from satellite imagery and other remote sensing technologies, businesses can gain a comprehensive understanding of crop health, growth stages, and environmental factors across the entire crop lifecycle, leading to optimized planning, resource management, and improved yields.
Aviation
A Multi-Module Aeronautical Information Platform
The aviation industry relies heavily on accurate and timely information for safe and efficient operations. A multi-module aeronautical information platform serves as a critical backbone, integrating diverse data streams related to airspace, weather, navigation, and other essential details to support flight planning, air traffic control, and overall operational safety and management.
Utilities and Critical Infrastructure
Transforming infrastructure and utilities for optimized planning, monitoring, and risk mitigation
The infrastructure and utilities sectors are fundamental to societal functioning, and their efficient management is paramount. By embracing advanced technologies, these sectors can achieve optimized planning, continuous monitoring of assets and networks, and robust risk mitigation strategies, leading to more resilient, sustainable, and effective delivery of essential services.
Forestry
Building first-of-its kind Digital Forest Stack for governments, enabling forest communities and allied industries
In forestry, the development of a digital forest stack represents a significant leap forward for governments and related stakeholders. This innovative platform can centralize data on forest resources, health, and management, enabling sustainable practices, supporting the livelihoods of forest communities, and providing valuable information for allied industries dependent on forest products.
Insurance and Reinsurance
De-Risking Agricultural Insurance with Satellite-Driven Intelligence
SatSure empowers insurers and reinsurers with real-time crop intelligence, yield forecasts, and post-disaster assessment tools—enabling smarter underwriting, efficient claims validation, and scalable risk management across geographies
