Understand what a Super El Niño credit shock means for India's agri-lending portfolio
Agricultural NPAs have historically doubled in severe El Niño years. With ₹28.98 lakh crore in agri-credit outstanding and Super El Niño conditions tracking for 2026, the window to act is measured in weeks, not quarters.
You'll gain insights into:
- Why 2026 is a portfolio-level event — what a 50–70% drought probability means for KCC repayment across the 8–10 states that carry 75% of India's agri-disbursement.
- The historical NPA pattern from 2015–16, why 2026 conditions are materially worse, and what an agri-NPA trajectory of 18–22% threatens across the ₹28.98 lakh crore portfolio.
- How agri-lenders are currently operating without real-time crop visibility, and what that information lag costs by the time defaults surface in repayment data.
What you'll find inside the report
The portfolio at risk
India's agricultural credit portfolio stands at ₹28.98 lakh crore in FY25. Kisan Credit Cards account for ₹10.2 lakh crore outstanding across 7.72 crore farmers. This section maps exactly where the exposure concentrates — by state, by crop, and by disbursement channel — before the monsoon stress arrives.
Why NPAs arrive as a surprise
Defaults start at crop failure. They show up in repayment data 6-9 months later. By that point, restructuring options have narrowed, farmer distress has compounded, and political pressure for blanket waivers has already built. The report explains the timeline precisely, with 2015-16 and 2023-24 as reference points.
The KCC visibility gap
₹10.2 lakh crore of Kisan Credit Card exposure. No real-time mechanism to identify which branches are heading into stress until it shows up in collections. This section breaks down the data gap — what banks currently rely on, why it lags, and what it cost SBI and others in 2015-16.
Farm loan waivers and the political dimension
Farm loan waivers since 2014 have exceeded ₹2.52 lakh crore across states. In 2015-16 alone, waivers exceeded ₹60,000 crore across five states. A Super El Niño in 2026 will generate comparable pressure. Banks that can demonstrate proactive, data-backed risk management will be better positioned in those conversations.
How satellite intelligence changes the decision timeline
From branch-level crop health dashboards to fortnightly portfolio risk scores, an overview of how earth observation data at district level gives agri-lenders 2-3 months of early warning — enough time to move from reactive provisioning to structured restructuring before the NPA wave surfaces.
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In the agriculture sector, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data is transforming how agri-businesses operate. By leveraging insights derived from satellite imagery and other remote sensing technologies, businesses can gain a comprehensive understanding of crop health, growth stages, and environmental factors across the entire crop lifecycle, leading to optimized planning, resource management, and improved yields.
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A Multi-Module Aeronautical Information Platform
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The infrastructure and utilities sectors are fundamental to societal functioning, and their efficient management is paramount. By embracing advanced technologies, these sectors can achieve optimized planning, continuous monitoring of assets and networks, and robust risk mitigation strategies, leading to more resilient, sustainable, and effective delivery of essential services.
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Insurance and Reinsurance
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